A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
